The Y2K Bug, What IS it?

by Doug Smith

http://web.archive.org/web/20000617224425/www.ed2go.com/news/y2k.html

If you need to find me January 1, 2000, you’ll have to look pretty hard. I’ll be up on the roof with my shotgun protecting my property from them mutants. You can’t trust a mutant to not mess with your ammo, water, or dehydrated food. After I’ve cleared my neighborhood of marauding mutant hordes, I’m hoppin’ on my Harley. After all, I’ve gotta comb the wastelands for gas, water, and fellow surviving humans.

That’s how some individuals and organizations are trying to portray the arrival of the year 2000. Most experts will tell you that life isn’t going to be like "Road Warrior" when the millenium comes, though there may be some inconveniences having to do with what has become known as the "Y2K Bug." 

So what is this "Y2K Bug"? It’s not some giant Mothra-esque insect that will come flying out of your computer screen. The Y2K Bug is a simple programming problem that has been building for years. In the Dark Ages of programming (the early to mid-1970s), computer memory was much more of a precious commodity than it is today. It was much more expensive and scarce, so programmers were forced to take shortcuts to conserve memory.

The problem is that one of those ‘shortcuts’ had to do with using two-digit numeric codes for the year. Instead of forcing the computer to remember a four digit number like 1973, early programmers wrote applications that could retain only the last two digits of the year. This practice continued through the years and eventually became a standard programming practice.

Unfortunately, none of these programmers stopped to think that it might someday be necessary to use more than two digits to represent the year. Many of the programs written over the last quarter-century won't accept the first two digits of the year. This means that these programs cannot distinguish between the year 1899, the year 1999, or the year 2099. Today, these poorly-coded programs control many important systems that have become integral parts of our everyday lives. Many of these flawed programs are used to help provide us with such essential services as banking, utilities, security, fire and police, telecommunications, transportation, and health care.

Many computers that have been programmed using the two-digit system will not properly recognize the year 2000. Next New Year's day, some computers will operate under the incorrect assumption that the year is 1900 and not 2000. This will wreak havoc on accounting and other systems that are dependent on time and date calculations to function properly.

Many companies and/or organizations did not at first realize the potential of the Y2K bug, and got a late start dealing with the problem. Still, others have chosen to ignore the problem altogether. Some believe the government will solve all the Y2K problems. 

Fixing the problem is not as easy as it may sound. Some older computer systems are filled with bad programs, and the sheer number of these machines still in operation is daunting. Many businesses, corporations, and public services claim to be Y2K compliant, but few really understand what the term even means. 

Furthermore, many of these early systems were programmed using outdated computer languages such as COBOL. Most of the programmers who developed these systems have moved, retired, or vanished. Nowadays, COBOL programmers are as hard to find as four-leaf clovers. To make matters worse, some of these older programs don’t even have any available source code or documentation, making modifications almost impossible.

Fortunately, the brunt of the Y2K bug will be borne by older systems. Companies that use outmoded hardware controlled by an obsolete program coded in an obscure language may find that the most economical solution for them will be to replace their equipment with a modern network of high-speed PC's. Others may find it more affordable to hire programmers who can rewrite or replace obsolete programs with more modern applications that can handle four-digit years.

The best preparation for Y2K is knowledge. Be prepared and aware. There’s no need to be terrified. The world isn’t going to end. After all, the vast majority of programs you use today don't really care what year it is. Of those that do (such as Access, Quicken, or QuickBooks), the only action you may need to take is to contact the manufacturer to obtain and install a free or inexpensive software upgrade. 

Because most of us use machines and applications that are either already Y2K compliant, or can easily be made so, the Y2K bug is not expected to be any more serious than a case of the sniffles. The hurricanes, snowstorms, and transportation worker strikes we endured in 1998 and 1999 created far more havoc than the Y2K bug is ever expected to cause. 

Many organizations and facilities within the United States are already Y2K compliant, or nearly so. Most computer scientists agree that if there are problems, they will be localized and short-lived--posing no more of a threat to our way of life than did last month's much-hyped, but largely ineffective, Melissa and Chernobyl viruses.